We are one day away from film Twitter reaching peak insufferable levels— aka Oscar Nomination day. Over the years, predicting nominees for Best Picture has largely been an easy task, save 2 or 3 spots. There’s always a surprise. There’s always a snub. But what makes this year’s Best Picture race more exciting is that it seems only 5 films are assured locks, with the other 5 being high potential but it wouldn’t be inconceivable if they were to miss the list. This list will be separated into 3 sections:
The Locks- the movies you can wager your 2016 Honda Civic1 on. The movies you can guarantee to casual film fans to impress them with your seemingly omnipotent film knowledge. The ones that will undoubtedly be read on Tuesday morning at the hellish time of 4am PST2
The High Potentials- a little riskier, maybe you don’t bet the 2016 Honda Civic but maybe you risk your bicycle or your pride, something of equal or lesser value. These are the ones that will likely get the nod, but it won’t be too surprising if a few of these miss out in favor of the wild cards.
The Wild Cards- the high-risk, high-reward movies. The pesky movies that sit on the cusp of esteem3 and keep award enthusiasts up at night. Their chances are lower than The High Potentials and The Locks but the crucial part is that the chance still exists. If any of these films get nominated, they would replace one of The High Potentials.
The Locks
Everything Everywhere All At Once
It has all led up to this moment. I’m not sure if it’s fair to call EEAAO a Cinderella story, since statistically, it is the front-runner to win Best Picture, but considering its roots, it was a film that always had an uphill battle. It’s too weird for the Oscar voters. It’s a sci-fi, comedy, action, coming-of-age, family drama. There has never been a film in the history of the Oscars like EEAAO but the beauty of its inevitable nominations is that it may be a sign that the Academy will be more accepting of films like it. Or maybe it isn’t, maybe it is an anomaly. Regardless of the future, EEAAO has defied the odds in 2022 and it will be the most obvious lock on Tuesday morning.
The Banshees of Inisherin
At this point, EEAAO’s fiercest competition for Best Picture. While my blind love for EEAAO most likely taints my perspective on every other film, Martin McDonagh’s latest will likely score several nominations alongside the Best Picture nomination— and for good reason. We’ll have a better understanding of what direction the voters will go once we have the results of the SAGs/DGAs/PGAs, but for now, consider Banshees a safe bet on Tuesday morning.
The Fabelmans
It’s a Steven Spielberg movie. More interestingly than its obvious nomination is the disinterest in the film from the public. In the infancy of award season, most people would point to The Fabelmans as the obvious Best Picture winner, but after a less-than-stellar box office performance and surprising lack of wins in the award circuit, the question must be asked— do people care for Spielberg still? I’m aware that it sounds preposterous, but the numbers do not lie. You could argue that it’s The Fabelmans people are apathetic towards, but last year’s West Side Story experienced a very similar run. Of course, people’s apathy for West Side Story could have stemmed from other areas4 but with back-to-back flops from one of the world’s greatest living directors, it does beg some interesting questions. We’ll know more about the public’s sentiments when we start to see trailers and stills for Bullitt, but for now, The Fabelmans will undoubtedly score a nomination.
Tár
While the confusion about whether Lydia Tár was a real person5 has provided endless amounts of joy over the past couple of months, like The Fabelmans, Tár has proven to be a critical darling but has not resonated with general audiences. This hasn’t stopped the Academy in the past to nominate a film, but it does make it a less-than-ideal choice to take home the statue. Regardless of public indifference, Cate Blanchett’s dynamic performance and Todd Field’s impeccable direction are enough to secure the nomination.
Elvis
Elvis has not left the building, apparently. Admittedly, I wrote Elvis off as another average biopic after its release in June and I’d argue I was far from the only one. But as award season kicked into high gear, there appeared to be an Elvis resurgence largely led by Austin Butler’s electric performance, despite a painfully awkward Tom Hanks. We now live in a world where a nomination for Elvis appears to be a guaranteed thing and a win for Best Picture is far from unbelievable. I think the more interesting question is what this means for the future of biopics. The Academy has notoriously favored them, but with Elvis as the only real biopic that will score nominations, does this mean the Academy is finally moving away from them? The answer is likely no, but they could be baby steps in a different direction.
The High Potentials
Top Gun: Maverick
Callsign: Best Picture? Easily 2022’s biggest surprise. A billion-dollar success story, universal acclaim, and further cemented Tom Cruise as a brilliant yet demented superstar. The only thing that stands against Top Gun: Maverick is that it doesn’t scream “Oscar Film”. But what does that mean anymore? Sure, Top Gun: Maverick’s success or quality may largely be rooted in its visual and technical feats, but this doesn’t make it any less good than a film whose quality is rooted in its performances. That is the beauty of Maverick's potential nomination— it is continuing to challenge the archaic definition of an “Oscar Film” and that in itself, is a very good thing.
Avatar: The Way of Water
As the saying goes, do not bet against James Cameron. We laughed when he said the movie needed to make 2 billion dollars and look at us now— egg on our face6. While it won’t be a frontrunner like its predecessor, it will join its predecessor in being nominated while scoring some obvious technical wins. Maybe Avatar 3 will win? All I know is that I’m tired of doubting James Cameron.
All Quiet on the Western Front
The anti-war film remake is quietly making waves in the award circuit leading to the Oscars. It may not be the talk of the town, but when the dust clears after nomination morning, it wouldn’t be shocking to see All Quiet on the Western Front with a handful of nominations.
The Whale
These last two picks have the lowest potential of the High Potentials. Ultimately, I do believe The Whale will score a nomination on Tuesday morning. Brendan Fraser’s comeback story is too powerful to ignore and deservedly so— his performance is why The Whale continues to be in conversations. That being said, there is a reality where this movie misses the cut on a majority of the categories, including Best Picture.
Women Talking
Ultimately, I do believe Women Talking will grab a nomination for Best Picture, but it’s an uphill battle. Arguably the film with the most talented cast, its late January release, and its lack of marketing have done it no favors. Still, it’s a compelling story with equally compelling performances that has been noticed by critics and voters, but the main question will be— has it been noticed enough? In a perfect world, the answer is yes. But we do not live in a perfect world.
Wild Cards
Triangle of Sadness- the Palme d’Or winner, if there is a wild card with the highest potential, it’s this one.
RRR- if there is any Cinderella story this year, it’s RRR. It cannot score a Best International Film nomination, but it lives in the hearts of so many avid fans, a potential exists to get a nod for Best Picture as retribution.
Glass Onion- doesn’t have the same momentum as the first Knives Out, which missed out on a nomination for Best Picture in 20197, but Rian Johnson is a critic and fan favorite, so I don’t want to completely rule this out.
Black Panther- Wakanda Forever- Angela Bassett looks more and more like the frontrunner for Best Supporting Actress, which has really fueled the engine for a potential Best Picture nominee.
Babylon- it’s a stretch, to say the least. It has its super fans, but its lukewarm critical and box office reception is something that cannot be ignored. But it is possible that with all of its technical nominations, it does slide in.
Aftersun- the slimmest of chances, but it has undeniable acclaim. In our dreams, this gets nominated.
Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio- If the world was just, this would be nominated.
The Honda Civic is the ultimate first car, this is not debatable.
I don’t envy the East Coast often, but I do in this scenario.
I think it’s important to remember that a film’s lack of recognition should not be an indicator of its quality or lack thereof. While recognition from The Academy is something that can be celebrated, it is not always an indicator of the movie’s value or esteem. Great movies will be nominated, but far more movies will not be nominated that still deserve revere.
Ansel Elgort.
She is only real in our hearts.
One of those phrases that I learned very late in life but since learning it, I say it often. See also "as the crow flies”
Maybe an unfair comparison. 2019 was one of the great movie years, arguably the greatest movie year, of the 21st century. If Knives Out had been released in 2022, I think it would be a High Potential Best Picture nominee.
i will be rooting for babylon’s nom, although it probably won’t happen :(
EEAAO is so fuckin bad